Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)

Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.9)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. A bearish A type crossover will develop.

Idea: towards LW is expected if MW fails as a support

Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.

 R= UD (1749.1);   S = MW (1662.4), LW (1430.5)

Short term: toppish

On a daily basis; as long as our 23 days moving average trend is down, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: a bearish no-crossover could develop with our moving averages

Bet: LD will be our first support with a bearish no-crossover.

R = UD (1749.1)               S = LD (1574.6)

Conclusion: focus on daily M7 / M23.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: focus on monthly MACD (no-crossover / overbought)

Bet: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = PM (1532.8), MM (1398.9)

Medium term: towards LW?

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is maximal. Stochastic and MACD are overbought.

Idea: focus on moving averages (crossover / no-crossover)

Bet: weak as long as our stochastic is not oversold.

 R= MD (1694.2), UW (1893.3);   S = PM (1532.8), LW (1417.3)

Short term: technical recovery

On a daily basis; as long as our 23 days moving average trend is down, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: towards LD if MD proves to be a resistance

Bet: LD is a very strong support.

R = MD (1694.2), UD (1845.8)               S = LD (1542.6)

Conclusion: focus on MD.

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY next period. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: a type II should develop

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type II could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD. Above 1800 at the close, a new PEI could develop with our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: towards 5 000 or above as long as no NEI will develop on a monthly basis.

Bet: higher and higher (and nothing else in portfolios)

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 5 000);    S = PM (1477.9), MM (1377.5)

Medium term: type I in progress

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: toppish if PW fail as a support.

 R= historical high, 2 000, +++;   S = PW (1741), MW (1640)

Short term:  flat

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is above a reference one. TAM tools are down..

Idea: MD is our first resistance

Bet: PW is a strong support.

R = MD (1821), UD (1891)               S = LD (1751), PW (1741)

Conclusion: focus on PW and a Dramatic collapse on stocks indices.

(Chart is not available)

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY will cross MY next period. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. A type I could develop. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD.

On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: higher and higher (and nothing else in portfolios)

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++);    S = PM (1445.7), MM (1308.9)

 Medium term: focus on MACD

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is above a reference one. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the main trend remains bullish.

Idea: no correction before three weeks or more

Bet: higher.

 R= +;   S = MW (1510), PW (1483)

Short term:  type I in progress

On a daily basis, a type I is in progress.

Idea: if you don’t understand, read L’analyse technique aujourd’hui, la méthode ATDMF (Economica) or forget technical analysis.

Bet: use bullish parallel rules.

R = +;               S = MD (1558)

Conclusion: a New Gold Standard is not ruled out….

Position:

            Previous: out below PM (1445.7).

            In progress: hold on long position(s)

            Next: out below PM (1445.7).

PS: for our book (in French) or training (in English or French): atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Out of Europe between  29 of July and 5 August (morning)

Avec  l’ATDMF 2011 l’analyse est la suivante :

Graphique annuel :

 Un probable type II durant la prochaine période due au non-croisement en cours sur notre stochastique. Par la suite, un T9 accompagné d’une poursuite de la dynamique de LY devrait être observée.

La validation de cette hypothèse implique une poursuite des parallèles durant un minimum de 4 autres périodes. L’objectif peut être calculé en se référant aux indices US dans les années 80. La durée du mouvement est déterminée en appliquant les règles de sortie des parallèles.

Graphique trimestriel :

La présence d’IEP sur notre stochastique et notre MACD permet d’anticiper la formation d’un type I.

Graphique mensuel :

La présence d’une IEP sur le MACD milite pour la formation d’un type III durant la prochaine période.

Graphique hebdomadaire :

Le renforcement de la tendance haussière de M7 est probable au vu des cours – 7 à – 4.

Graphique journalier :

La présence d’un type II devrait être validée ce soir. Si cette hypothèse se vérifie, un T9 accompagné d’une hausse de la volatilité sera probable. Dans ces conditions, une amplification particulièrement violente des cours de l’or sera à l’ordre du jour à partir de vendredi prochain.   

Conclusion : d’ici vendredi 22 juillet ; en absence d’une baisse de la volatilité sur le graphique journalier, une hausse inimaginable des cours de l’or va débuter.

Renseignements : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY could cross MY next period. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century).

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis wards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our MACD.

On a monthly basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: technical correction with an overbought status for our quarterly stochastic (EOQ).

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++); S = PM (1373.9)

Medium term: a type III could be in progress

On a weekly basis, next MACD status will give the trend for two or three months.

Idea: as long as M7 is up, up trend is a priority,

Bet: below PW, an overbought status for our MACD could develop.

R= 1577.01 (Historical High), +; S = PW (1471.5), MW (1432.6)

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, UD and LD are flat. TAM will continue to rise.

Idea: above PD, UD is our next objective

Bet: UD / LD spread is above a reference one.

R = PD (1529.8), UD (1550.4); S = PW (1471.5)

Conclusion: hold on old long position (medium / long term basis) as long as MW (1432.6) proves to be a support.

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY could cross MY next period. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

On a monthly basis, a type III PEI is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: a new type III on a quarterly basis could develop.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++);    S = PM (1373.9)

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern in progress

On a weekly basis, a type II in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: PEI for our stochastic.

 R= + + +;   S = MW (1417.3)

Short term:  bullish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a type III is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: PEI with our MACD.

R =  + + +;               S = PD (1526.3), MD (1493.4)

Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for LY. PY could cross MY next period. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic. On a global Historical basis, one of the most bullish pattern ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: LY will continue to decline for two periods or more

Bet: S&P 500 rise in the 1986 / 2000 as a benchmark.

Long term: bullish parallel on a quarterly basis

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong and continue thru 2013. A PEI is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

On a monthly basis, a type III PEI is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules on a monthly basis

Bet: higher.

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (should be above 2 000, 3 000 and +++);    S = PM (1325)

Medium term: bullish

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is increasing. TAM are rising.

Idea: rise as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: a type II could develop.

 R= 1500; + + +;   S = MW (1401.2)

Short term:  bullish

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is increasing. A  PEI is in progress with our moving averages and with our MACD.

Idea: bullish as long as our MACD is not overbought

Bet: above 1500 is expected soon.

R =  1500, + + +;               S = MD (1446)

Conclusion: hold on old long position (medium / long term basis) as long as MW (1401) proves to be a support.