Remerciements à l’ATDMF (7/10/2008)

 

Editorial,

Pour notre portefeuille, nous ne pouvons que nous réjouir de la situation actuelle qui permet  tant sur les devises que sur les indices (warrants)de n’avoir que des positions gagnantes.

Nous avons reçu de nombreux messages de soutien, suite à notre édito posté hier matin bien avant l’ouverture des marchés.

Une fois encore, l’ATDMF et notre blog montre son utilité  et sa différence par rapport à l’analyse technique classique et aux médias (papier, internet, audio et vidéo) dont aucun (tant pour les particuliers que pour les professionnels) n’a été aussi utile et précis dans le comportement à avoir (choix de la position et money management). Contrairement à la mode actuelle qui consiste à analyser les causes de la situation, à l’aide de l’ATDMF, nous indiquons comment anticiper et profiter de la situation.

Nous revendiquons depuis de nombreuses années les performances de l’ATDMF dans les marchés volatiles (cf notre livre Analyse technique et volatilité, Economica, 2003) et les possibilités pour les opérateurs (professionnels et particuliers) de tirer profit de cette situation à l’aide de l’ATDMF. Curieusement, les voyous, qui prétendent avoir amélioré l’ATDMF (ceux qui utilisent conjointement le parabolique avec les bandes de Bollinger) font preuve de leur ignorance en brillant par leur absence en un moment crucial. Nous laissons les lecteurs juger par eux-mêmes.

En novembre, il reste quelques places pour nos prochaines formations.

 

Nouvelle analyse sur le pétrole : les effets de la crise ! ! !

 

 

Pétrole

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

Yearly trend: bullish.

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkei 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover PY – MY is expected + a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern will develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

 

Long term: new analysiswards LM (49.90ng as MQ (44.60

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallels one. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status for our stochastic is a bearish divergence. MQ (69.76) is our new main target.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress. With a close below MM (93.67), a correction towards LM (50.24) is not ruled out if MQ fails as a support.

Idea: October close will be below MM.

 

Medium term: towards MQ (69.76)

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are expending strongly but the spread is wide. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. A bearish parallels pattern is in progress. As long as our stochastic is not oversold, the main trend is bearish.  MQ (69.76) is our next objective.

Idea: focus on our weekly stochastic.

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal but increasing. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. Moving averages and MACD have a bearish trend. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the bear trend in progress will continue. MQ (69.76) could be an objective.

Idea: hold on short positions.

 

Conclusion: a collapse could develop.

 

Editorial,

Actuellement les nuits de nombreux opérateurs sont agitées. Certains sont angoissés par la fonte de leurs actifs (c’est le meilleur état pour faire n’importe quoi). D’autres, qui utilisent l’ATDMF, profitent de la hausse de la volatilité. La technique ATDMF est particulièrement performante en périodes de forte volatilité des marchés. Réjouissons-nous, tant que les cours n’auront pas touché la bande inférieure du Bollinger  d’un graphique trimestriel sur les principaux indices boursiers, une forte volatilité  sera toujours présente sur la majorité des marchés. Une version Béta de l’ATDMF 2009 est disponible lors des formations de trading.

Pour les opérateurs qui souhaitent prendre des positions avec un risque limité, les warrants sont actuellement un outil adéquat. Le 16 Septembre nous recommandions l’achat de put sur le pétrole. Nous renouvelons ce conseil aujourd’hui.

 

Pétrole (WTI)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

Yearly trend: bullish.

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkei 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover PY – MY is expected + a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern will develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

 

Long term: quarterly bullish pattern

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallels one. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages and MACD. As long as MM (91.91, end of a month) proves to be a support, the bullish parallels pattern is always in progress.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress. PM crossed MM and M7 was up. As long as MM (91.91, end of a month) proves to be a support, the main trend is a bullish ATDMF 2007 parallels pattern.

Idea: bullish, but a technical decline towards MM (91.91) is likely.

 

Medium term: below MM (91.91)

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are expending strongly but the spread is wide. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD. A bearish parallels pattern is in progress. Below MM (91.91), MQ (66.42) will be our next objective if 90 (below the current low) fail as a support.

Idea: use bearish parallels rules.

 

 

Short term: LD (93.76) = support?

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is maximal. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. With an overbought status for our MACD, the current low (90.5) is our next target. Below this objective, with a new dynamic for UD and LD, a collapse is expected. MQ (66.42) could be an objective. Otherwise, a recovery towards MD (103.31) is likely.

Idea: add short position below 90.

 

Conclusion: with a daily close below 90, a collapse is not ruled out.

 

Editorial,

 

La situation des banques US et surtout d’AIG est critique. L’analyse d’AIG, depuis quelques jours, permet de penser que le titre va tendre vers zéro rapidement. La liquidation de leurs actifs va entraîner le fameux risque systématique, mentionné dans les médias. Ce risque consiste en une contagion de la détérioration à l’activité économique mondiale. C’est cet événement qui est anticipé par la baisse des cours du pétrole. La décision de cette évolution sera prise par les marchés financiers dans le courant de la semaine en cours. Il se peut donc que dans l’Histoire du XXI è siècle / Histoire de la Finance, nous assistions prochainement à des événements Exceptionnels. L’utilisation de warrants (put) est parfaitement adaptée à ce type de situation.

Les opérateurs et gestionnaires qui restent long (haussier) sur les actions peuvent faire prendre à leurs actifs / clients un risque dont les conséquences vont se faire sentir durant de nombreuses années.

 

 

Anticipations des cours du pétrole.

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish.

 

Yearly trend: bullish.

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkei 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover PY – MY is expected + a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern will develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

 

Long term: quarterly bullish pattern

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallels one. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages and MACD. As long as MM (91.94, end of a month) proves to be a support, the bullish parallels pattern is always in progress.

On a monthly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress. PM crossed MM and M7 was up. As long as MM (91.94, end of a month) proves to be a support, the main trend is a bullish ATDMF 2007 parallels pattern.

Idea: bullish, but a technical decline towards MM (91.94) is likely.

 Medium term: below MM (91.94)?

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands are expending strongly and next week a bearish crossover PW / MW is expected. A new bearish parallels pattern will be in progress. Below MM (91.94), MQ (66.42) will be our next objective.

Idea: New bear weekly bearish parallels pattern (buy a put June 09 or >, out of the money)

 

 Short term: bearish parallels pattern

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is expending. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7/ 23 days moving averages. Two days ago, a bearish crossover PD / MD occurred with a strong dynamic for each Bollinger band. A new bearish parallels pattern began.

Idea: use bearish parallels rules.

 

Conclusion: medium term idea is the best to do.

 

 

Editorial

Dans notre document envoyé à nos abonnés institutionnels, le titre en première page est :

while WTI will soar soon??? (a main military event????)

 

A l’horizon de quelques semaines, un événement considérable devrait provoquer un mouvement de hausse des cours du pétrole. L’amplitude de ce mouvement est actuellement difficilement imaginable.

Si cette hausse se produit, cela sera un autre succès majeur pour l’approche ATDMF.  Il semble que la situation actuelle (en ce qui concerne la hausse des cours du pétrole) soit similaire à celle (à la baisse) de juillet 2001 sur les indices US. Rappelons qu’à la mi-juillet 2001 nous avions parfaitement anticipé sur les indices, les effets des attentats du 11 septembre (revue de l’A…E) puis sur Boursorama (31/08/2001).

PS : les personnes qui citent nos idées, sont priées d’indiquer les sources de leurs informations (http://atdmfcahen.over-blog.com).

 

Anticipations des cours du pétrole.

 

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babelfish

 

Yearly trend: bullish.

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkeï 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover, PY – MY, is expected with a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern will develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

Long term: very bullish for some months

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallels one. As long as MM (76.3) proves to be a support, the bullish parallels pattern is always in progress.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM – LM was not important when a T1 occurred. The dynamic for UM and LM is expending. PM crossed MM two months ago + a divergence between UM and LM. With this hypothesis, the bull trend will amplify. At the end of 2000, we had a similar pattern on a weekly basis for TMT. Stochastic and MACD are not overbought (bullish non-crossover for our stochastic). As long as T1 (78.3) proves to be a support, the main trend is a bullish ATDMF 2007 parallels pattern.

Idea: the most powerful pattern ever seen.

 

Medium term: higher

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is increasing and next week a bullish crossover PD – MD will occurs. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with: moving averages, stochastic and MACD. Above a Historical new high (111.78), prices could soar for a spectacular rally.

Idea: Something like a war somewhere???

 

Short term: towards a bullish pre-parallels pattern?

On a daily basis; Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. UD (111.37) should act as a resistance. If MD (105.39) acts as a support, a bullish pre-parallels pattern could develop.

 

Conclusion: while WTI will soar soon??? (a main military event????)

 

 

 

Editorial,

La configuration ATDMF observée sur le graphique mensuel des cours du pétrole (WTI) est exceptionnellement haussière. Pour ce faire une idée, il faut comparer ce graphique mensuel au graphique hebdomadaire observé à partir d’octobre 1999 sur les TMT. Bien entendu passer d’un graphique hebdomadaire à un graphique mensuel, revient à multiplier les performances par un nombre supérieur à 1. Sachant que sur les TMT des hausses de plus de X00 % furent souvent observées entre novembre 99 et mars 2000, ceci donne une idée de ce qui se prépare sur les cours du pétrole. Rappelons qu’en 2003, notre prévision d’un cours de 300 $ le baril, faisait rire une majorité d’opérateurs et de « l’Expert » des matières premières …

 

Crude oil (WTI, nearest future)

 

 

Le texte suivant  est traduisible à l’aide de Google Babelfish

 

Yearly trend: bullish.

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkeï 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover, PY – MY, is expected with a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern will develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

 

Long term: very bullish for some months

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallels one. As long as MM (74.53) proves to be a support, the bullish parallels pattern is always in progress.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM – LM was not important when a T1 occurred. The dynamic for UM and LM is expending. PM crossed MM + a divergence between UM and LM. With this hypothesis, the bull trend will amplify. At the end of 2000, we had a similar pattern on a weekly basis for TMT. Stochastic and MACD are not overbought. As long as T1 (78.3) proves to be a support, the main trend is a bullish ATDMF 2007 parallels pattern.

Idea: the most powerful pattern ever seen.

 

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is not minimal and LW is flat. A bullish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as our 7 weeks moving average is up, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: with LD trend, the pattern is not so bullish.

 

Short term: bullish parallels pattern

On a daily basis; a bullish crossover occurred between MD and PD without a correction for prices. A bullish parallels pattern is in progress.

Idea: use parallels rules.

 

Conclusion: in March, the bull trend will continue.

Editorial,

 

Comme souvent je l’indique ; faire des prévisions c’est anticiper comment un marché va se comporter. Si le scénario décrit se réalise, alors le mouvement va se poursuivre. L’ATDMF permet, lorsque certaines conditions sont réunies, de se prêter à cet exercice. Justement, début mars, il est probable que le marché de l’or et du pétrole soient dans cette situation : correction technique suivie du début d’un mouvement de hausse. Le scénario idéal serait que ces mouvements se produisent d’ici deux semaines (ou encore mieux, d’ici la mi-mars). L’ATDMF 2007 permet d’anticiper, dés maintenant, que ces mouvements puissent être  d’une violence peu fréquente. En revanche, si les conditions énumérées ne se produisent pas, les mouvements attendus ne seront pas au rendez-vous.

L’ATDMF ayant été conçu comme un système, cette démarche n’est possible que grâce à la connaissance de l’ensemble des règles de l’ATDMF.  Changer une seule règle de l’ATDMF 2007 revient à modifier le comportement du système et de ses performances.

 

Marché du pétrole (WTI)

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide Yahoo Babel Fish.

 

Yearly trend: bullish.

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkeï 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover, PY – MY, is expected with a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern will develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

 

Long term: very bullish for some months

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallels one. As long as MM (73.09) proves to be a support, the bullish parallels pattern is always in progress.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM – LM was not important when a T1 occurred. The dynamic for UM and LM is expending. Next month, PM willcross MM + a divergence between UM and LM. With this hypothesis, the bull trend will amplify. At the end of 2000, we had a similar pattern on a weekly basis for TMT. Stochastic and MACD are not overbought. As long as T1 (78.3) proves to be a support, the main trend is a bullish ATDMF 2007 parallels pattern.

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic and MACD ….

 

Medium term: bullish ATDMF 2007 pattern?

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is not far away from its minimal level. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. One week after a close above UW (99.83), a bullish ATDMF 2007 pattern could develop (if we have a bullish trend for UW).

Idea: a powerful bull move is underway (better if (first) we have a technical correction)

 

Short term: not a bullish ATDMF 2007 pattern

On a daily basis; as long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress could continue. With the spread UD / LD, this move is not a bullish ATDMF 2007 pattern.

Idea: MD (93.37) is a strong support.

Conclusion: in March, a new strong bull trend could develop.

 

Editorial

Les analystes techniques font-ils des prévisions ?

Faire des prévisions ce n’est pas uniquement constater une situation pour en déduire une évolution probable (à partir d’un point A, un point B pourrait être un objectif). Ce que se limite à faire la quasi totalité des analystes. Faire de prévisions, c’est se comporter comme des joueurs d’échecs : anticiper le plus grand nombre possible de changements de situations. Selon la Théorie des Systèmes, l’homme est en mesure de pouvoir anticiper 7 situations successives. L’application des principes de la version 2007 de l’ATDMF ne permet d’en faire que 4.  Pratiquement, ceci donne une bonne marge de sécurité à l’opérateur lorsque cette démarche est utilisée.

En lisant les analyses disponibles sur le net ou ailleurs, force est de constater que bien peu d’analystes effectuent le travail qu’ils croient faire.

 

Crude oil

 

Le texte suivant  est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel Fish.

Yearly trend: bullish.

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are diverging. This pattern is more bullish than Gold between 1970 and 1980 or Dow Jones between 1982 and 2000 or Nikkeï 225 between 1974 and 1989. The bull trend should continue for some years. 300 $ could be a minimal objective with a reference to other markets. Next year, a bullish crossover, PY – MY, is expected with a divergence between UY and LY. A yearly bullish parallels pattern will develop for some years.

Idea: bullish for more than 3 years.

 

Long term: very bullish for some months

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallels one. As long as MM (72.97) proves to be a support, the bullish parallels pattern is always in progress.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM – LM was not important when a T1 occurred. The dynamic for UM and LM is expending. Next month, PM willcross MM + a divergence between UM and LM (?). With this hypothesis, the bull trend will amplify. This month, the trend for LM is important. Stochastic and MACD are not overbought. As long as T1 (78.3) proves to be a support, the main trend is a bullish ATDMF 2007 parallels pattern.

Idea: next month, bullish non-crossover for our stochastic and MACD ….

 

Medium term: bullish pre-parallels pattern?

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is not minimal and our indicators are weak. UW and PW could act as a resistance. Afterwards, MW (92.01) will be our next objective. If MW proves to be a support, a bullish pre-parallels pattern could develop..

Idea: long, in March, if MW proves to be a support.

 

Short term: not bullish

On a daily basis, the spread UD – LD is wide. The rise in progress is only a technical recovery. UW (99.5) could be a strong resistance.

Idea: MD (90.94) is a strong support.

Conclusion: wait an opportunity to go long.