Editorial :
Cataclysme sur les indices
Les jeux sont pratiquement faits. L’analyse du Nasdaq 100 confirme les observations faites sur le S & P 500. Le parabolique hebdomadaire a tranché : sauf miracle la semaine prochaine, le non-croisement à la hausse entre le parabolique et les cours sera confirmé la semaine prochaine. Rappelons que John Bollinger a écrit que l’analyse des cours et du parabolique telle que pratiquée dans l’ATDMF (non-croisement) est un apport majeur à l’analyse technique.
Indice S & P 500
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Long term basis: Quarterly bearish divergence with our MACD?
On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress.
On a quarterly basis, the dynamic for our 7 – 23 moving averages is up. The pattern in progress is a bullish Australian one. At the end of March 08 a bearish divergence could be the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007. LQ (931) could be a target if MQ (1242) fails as a support.
On a monthly basis; the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish divergence. Our first objective is LM (1282) / MQ (1242). The spread UM / LM is not minimal but not so important. Below MQ (1242, at the close), LQ (931) is our favourite target.
Idea: as long as MM (1424) = resistance, LM (1282) is our main target.
Medium term: lower
On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 2 3 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. The bearish dynamic for our 7 weeks moving average will stay strong. As long as our 7 weeks moving average is down, no recovery could develop. PW(1362.2) will act as a resistance this week. If PW act as a resistance next week + a new low Vs this week => a new bear trend will develop.
Idea: a new bear parallels pattern next week could be expected.
Short term: flat
On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is wide. The trend for MD is weak. The status for our indicators is neutral. MD (1319) is our first target and LD (1273) is the next one. UD (1366) is a strong resistance.
Idea: PW will act as a resistance…
Conclusion: focus on PW.