Editorial,

 

Un test important sur les divers indices est attendu : le croisement des indices avec le parabolique quotidien. Ceci signifie que si ce croisement se produit, la reprise technique pourra se poursuivre. Mais dans le cas contraire, un nouveau point bas devrait être observé début février. Avec la vérification de ce dernier scénario, le terme de krach ne sera pas usurpé.

 

Indice S & P 500

 

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Long term basis: Quarterly bearish divergence with our MACD?

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress.

On a quarterly basis, the dynamic for our 7 – 23 moving averages is up. The pattern in progress is a bullish Australian one. At the end of March 08 a bearish divergence could be the status for our MACD. With this hypothesis, it will be one period after our stochastic (December 2007).  LQ (931) could be a target if MQ (1243) fails as a support.

On a monthly basis; our first objective is LM (1251) / MQ (1243). The spread UM / LM is not minimal but not so important.

Idea:  MQ (1243) is our next objective.

 

Medium term: decline

On a weekly basis, the spread UW – LW is important but expending. The status for each indicator is a bearish non-crossover.  As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue. Below MQ, this time frame will be bearish.

Idea: as long as MW (1472) acts as a resistance, a rise is only a technical recovery.

 

Short term: bearish Australian pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish Australian pattern is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the bear trend will continue. Until next Wednesday, without a bullish crossover S&P 5000 and PD, a new low is expected (with a new bearish non-crossover for our MACD).

Idea: with a recovery above MD (1405), the market will stabilize.

 

Conclusion: MQ (1243) is our main support.