Archives mensuelles : mai 2009

Edito : figure haussière sur le pétrole ?

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Figure haussière sur le pétrole ?

Avant la fin de la semaine, sur le graphique quotidien du WTI, une configuration haussière pourrait se mettre en place. Si cette figure ne se forme pas, la probabilité d’assister à une correction ou une baisse des indices boursiers (base quotidienne)  va devenir d’actualité.

Profitez des ponts de mai et juin pour une formation personnalisée à l’ATDMF en 2 jours, le troisième est facultatif. Accessible aux débutants mais profitable pour les opérateurs expérimentés (de nombreux professionnels de la gestion et du trading viennent apprendre l’ATDMF 2007). Tous les participants repartent opérationnels.

 

 Le troisième jour est à ajouter aux dates mentionnées.

Formation action et indices : 30 et 31 mai, 13 et 14 juin, 20 et 21 juin

Formation indices / devises / futures : 23 et 24 mai, 6 et 7 juin et 27 et 28 juin 2009.

Les tarifs sont ceux indiqués à l’adresse :

http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/?p=46   à la fin de l’article.

Un suivi de 2 mois est inclus dans la formation.

 

Renseignements complémentaires et inscriptions : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

Pétrole : hausse sur le graphique quotidien?

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Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out

On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.

Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.

 

Long term: technical recovery?

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (25.51) could be a target as long as MQ (69.3) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress.

Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

 

Medium term (June 09 contract): no bullish pattern could develop

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. UW trend is up but LW is flat. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bullish B type crossover is in progress. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic.

Idea: With UW / LW spread a nice rise could develop.

R = 58.8, MQ (69.3);       S = MW (51.11)

 

Short term (June 09 contract): bullish parallel pattern?

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. A bullish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic. A bullish parallel pattern could be in hand with a bullish crossover PD / MD + a bear trend for LD after this crossover. Otherwise, MD (52.3) will be our main objective.

Idea: towards MD, if UD (54.94) proves to be a resistance.

R = 58.8, MQ (69.3);          S = MD (52.3)

Conclusion: on a short term basis, a bull trend could develop.

 

Achat de put warrants sur indices ????

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Sur les indices, la situation est techniquement intéressante du point de vue de l’ATDMF. Sur les graphiques en base hebdomadaire, les cours se trouvent sur la bande supérieure de Bollinger. La bande inférieure ne semble pas vouloir baisser. Si cette situation se confirme la semaine prochaine (avec les différents autres paramètres), il va falloir profiter de la faiblesse des prix sur les put warrants….

Les personnes inscrites à nos prochaines formations et celles qui y ont participé depuis le début 2008 peuvent recevoir notre analyse complète sur les indices en faisant la demande sur atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

Profitez des ponts de mai et juin pour une formation personnalisée à l’ATDMF en 2 jours, le troisième est facultatif. Accessible aux débutants mais profitable pour les opérateurs expérimentés (de nombreux professionnels de la gestion et du trading viennent apprendre l’ATDMF 2007). Tous les participants repartent opérationnels.

 

 Le troisième jour est à ajouter aux dates mentionnées.

Formation action et indices : 9 et 10 mai, 30 et 31 mai, 13 et 14 juin, 20 et 21 juin

Formation indices / devises / futures : 2 et 3 mai, 23 et 24 mai, 6 et 7 juin et 27 et 28 juin 2009.

Les tarifs sont ceux indiqués à l’adresse :

http://analyse-technique-atdmf.fr/?p=46   à la fin de l’article.

Un suivi de 2 mois est inclus dans la formation.

 

Renseignements complémentaires et inscriptions : atdmfcahen@yahoo.fr

 

S&P 500 : LW is flat

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Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY (182.74) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 4 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in Q2 2002 it was a bearish B type crossover).Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). 500 and LY (182.74) are our next targets. 

Idea: with a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic, correction of the XX century bullish trend => bear trend for one decade or more.

R = PM (988.33), MM (1162.7);    S = 666 (current low), 500, –

 

Medium term: without trend

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal (until July?). If Bollinger bands are flat when prices = UW, the technical recovery will be over. A weak bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 2 3 weeks moving averages.  UW (943.77) is our next objective.

Idea: with the monthly trend, UW is a very strong resistance.

R = UW (943.77);    S= MW (829.34).

 

 

Short term: towards UW (943.77).

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is thin but not minimal with the MD trend. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages are bullish. With the weekly trend, a bullish ATDMF pattern is unlikely. Below MD (866.95) a decline towards LD (821.75) is likely.

Idea: rise as long as MD (851.23) = support.

R = UW (943.77);      S= MD (866.95).

 

Conclusion: as long as UW (943.77) proves to be a resistance (at the close), a rise is only a technical recovery in a medium / long term bear market.

 

Poursuite de la pentification de la courbe des taux

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Contrat Euribor

Long term: higher

On a monthly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages is a bullish A type crossover. Stochastic and MCD are oversold. With Bollinger bands, the pattern in progress is a bullish parallel one.

Idea: out below PW (98.595)

R = UW (98.918), +++;        S= PW (98.595)

 

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules but out below PW (98.595)

R = UW (98.918);            S = PW (98.595)

 

 

Short term: rise / bullish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. The status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages and stochastic is a bullish non-crossover. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bullish non-crossover. UW (98.918) is our first resistance.

Idea: towards UW or higher.

R = UW (98.918);    S = MD (98.676)

 

Conclusion: higher.

 

Contrat Eurobund

Long term: toppish

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 failed with LQ which is flat. But our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. Within 2 or 3 periods, a bearish divergence will be the status for stochastic and MACD. MQ (117.47) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern failed (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly pseudo- bullish “T2” occurred and LM was flat in T4). A decline will develop when our stochastic will be overbought (month’s end).

Idea: not bearish as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought.

           

Medium term: flat?

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bearish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Below LW (121.36), decline could continue without a bearish ATDMF pattern.

Idea: new bearish non-crossover for our stochastic and MACD

R = MW (123.63);   S = LW (121.36), –

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis (June contract), the spread UD / LD is not wide. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. UD (123.09) is our main resistance and LW (121.09) is our first support.

Idea: decline as long as our stochastic is not oversold

R = UD (123.09);   S = LW (121.09)

 

Conclusion: less bearish than 10 Y T-Note (monthly / quarterly basis)

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD / JPY : toppish

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Long term:  MM (102.7) = strong resistance

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. A bullish non-crossover could develop with our MACD. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. Decline will continue for some periods. On a monthly basis, a bullish divergence is the status for our monthly stochastic. Our 7 / 23 months moving averages are not bullish for some month (bearish non-crossover in progress). As long as our 7 / 23 months moving averages are bearish, a rise is only a technical recovery.

Idea: LM (89.22) is our main objective.

R = MM (102.7);     S = LM (89.23)

 

Medium term: flat

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. PW acted as a support without a bullish non-crossover as a status for our MACD. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue.

Idea: technical recovery in progress.

R = UW (102.37);           S = MW (94.81), LW (87.24)

 

Short term: trading range

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. With the weekly trend, no bear pattern could be expected. LD (96.35) is a strong support and UD (100.83) is our main resistance.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = UD (100.83);   S = LD (96.35)

 

Conclusion: LW (87.24) could be a target within some weeks.

 

WTI : a rise could develop without a bullish pattern

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Yearly trend: more declines is not ruled out

On a yearly basis; last period, MY acted as a support but T1 and PY price failed as supports. Our stochastic is overbought and our 7 / 23 years moving averages are not bearish.

Idea: with the stochastic status, 2008 low could fail as a support.

 

Long term: technical recovery?

On a quarterly basis, the spread UQ / LQ is maximal but shrinking slowly. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish B type crossover will develop. Stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (25.18) could be a target as long as MQ (69.16) proves to be a resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is maximal and expending. With our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress.

Idea: a bearish non-crossover could develop with our stochastic.

 

Medium term (June 09 contract): no bullish pattern could develop

On a weekly basis, UW / LW spread is minimal. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic.

Idea: With UW / LW spread a nice rise could develop.

R =UW (56.19), +;       S = MW (50.53)

 

Short term (June 09 contract): rise?

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bullish A type crossover is the next status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic. If UD / LD spread increase; the recovery in progress will continue, as long as our MACD is not overbought.

Idea: towards MD, if UD (54.94) proves to be a resistance.

R = MD (51.56);   S = UD (54.94), UW (56.19),  +

 

Conclusion: on a short term basis, a rise could develop.

 

CAC 40 : technical recovery towards UW (3366)?

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Long term: towards 2400 or lower

On a yearly basis, see the dynamic for – 8 and next…MY failed as a support. 2400 is our first target. Our stochastic is overbought. 2400 should fail as a support. Below 2 000, LY (652) will be our next objective.

On a quarterly basis, a nice dynamic is in progress with each Bollinger band. Last close was below LQ. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages a bearish A or B type crossover is in progress (wait for Q2 close). Our MACD could be overbought for two periods or more. On a monthly basis; a bearish parallel pattern is in progress as long as MM (4305) proves to be a resistance.

Idea: LY (648) is our main target with aquarterly A type bearish crossover.

 

R = UW (3366), PM (3458);   S = 2400, 2000, LY (648)

 

Medium term: be careful with a bullish B type crossover

On a weekly basis, a bullish B type crossover could develop within two weeks. With this hypothesis, the recovery in progress will be over when our stochastic will be overbought. With a bullish A type crossover, UW (3366) will be our main resistance.

Idea: rise but not bullish.

R = UW (3366);     S = MW (2973)

 

Short term: rise in progress

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. As long as our 23 days moving average is up, the rise will continue without bullish ATDMF pattern (weekly trend could not be bullish). UW (3366) is our main target. MD (3000) is a strong support.

Idea: long for intraday players.

R = UW (3366);     S= MD (3000)

 

Conclusion: bearish on a monthly (and higher) time frame.