Archives mensuelles : janvier 2010

Indices: Higher, at least, until the end of February

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Long term basis: technical recovery

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought but our 7 / 23 years moving averages are up.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands are flat. The bearish trend for our 7 quarters moving average will continue for the next period. A bullish A type crossover could develop at the end of 2010. Our stochastic is oversold. A recovery towards MQ or UM could develop.

On a monthly basis; with our 7 / 23 months moving averages, a bullish B type crossover could develop within 3 months. Our stochastic will be overbought in 2 periods or more.

Idea: MQ could be our next target.

Bet: not higher than MQ / UM.

R = MQ (4594);    S = MM (3570)

 

Medium term: rise without bullish pattern

On a weekly basis, Bollinger Bands spread is thin. Our moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

Idea: as long as M23 trend is up, a decline will be a technical correction.

Bet: towards UM

 

R = UM (4604)               S= MW (3777), LW (3621)       

 

Short term: rise without bullish pattern

On a daily basis, our moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise in progress will continue.

 

Idea: as long as MD = support, a decline is only a technical correction.

Bet: PD will act as a support

R = UD (4052), UM (4604);     S= PD (3933), MD (3896)

 

Conclusion: technical rise in progress, at least, until the end of  February.

 

10 Y T-Note : quarterly basis is bearish

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Long term: PQ is our first target

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands spread ids shrinking. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is slightly up. Our stochastic is oversold with a weak bullish no-crossover.

On a quarterly basis, LQ could turn up but the UQ / LQ spread is wide. A bullish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought with a bearish divergence for our stochastic. As long as PQ proves to be a support the decline in progress is only a technical move.

On a monthly basis, a bearish divergence for our stochastic with a bearish no-crossover for stochastic and MACD is in progress. LM / PQ is our main objective.

Idea: strong bearish signal with our stochastic quarterly bearish divergence

Bet: bearish trend at least until Q2 2011

 R = MM (118.22);    S = PQ (111.7), MY (110.3)

 

Medium term: bearish pattern

On a weekly basis, like a bearish bubble pattern is in progress (continuous contract, not yet on the March one).

Idea: UW / LW spread will increase in the future

Bet: new FED policy before March 2010

R =MW (117.85);      S = LD (114.61)

 

Short term: bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules

Bet: new bear impulsion with a bearish no-crossover for our  7 / 23 days moving averages.

 

R = PD (116.28), MD (116.8);       S = LD (114.61)

 

Conclusion: bearish T4 next week for our weekly basis

 

€ / $: without main trend

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   Long term: neutral

On a yearly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal, LY could decline and UY is rising. Our 7 / 23 moving averages are up and our MACD will be overbought in two periods or more (bullish non-crossover in progress). UY is our first target.

On a quarterly basis, a bullish no-crossover could develop next year with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a weak bearish no-crossover. As long as MQ proves to be a support, UQ / PQ are our main target.

On a monthly basis, the UM / LM spread is maximal. A bullish B type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. A recovery could develop as long as MM proves to be a support (end of period).

Idea: towards LM if MQ fails as a support

Bet: MQ will act as a support

R = UY (1.5187), UQ (1.575);    S= MM (1.4101), MQ (1.3592), LM (1.2384)

 

Medium term: Bollinger Bands spread is not minimal

On a weekly basis; with our 7 / 23 moving averages, a bearish A type crossover could develop. A bearish no-crossover is in progress with our MACD. With the monthly trend, no bearish ATDMF pattern could develop on a weekly basis.

Idea: LW could act as a support

Bet: bearish pre-parallel pattern

R = MW (1.4658);     S = LW (1.4184)

 

Short term: Bollinger Bands spread is not minimallrt term: no trend965Y (1.4243amilliales) enance personnelle.tellis

On a daily basis; a decline is in progress. With a close above MD, UD is our next target.

Idea: MD will act as a resistance.

Bet: trading range for 2 weeks.

R = MD (1.4442), UD (1.4705);   S = PD (1.4242), LD (1.4156)

 

Conclusion: without clear main trend.

 

Edito : avenir de l’or

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A la question : faut-il acheter de l’or pour profiter du repli actuel il n’y a pas une réponse mais des réponses qui sont fonction de la durée envisagée pour l’opération.

A la suite de nos analyses nous avions ajouté « Idées » afin de conforter nos analyses. Dans le cadre de l’ATDMF 2010, nous ajoutons : « Pari ». Celles et ceux qui pratiquent l’ATDMF 2010 ont compris que cela permet de passer du point B au point C ou au point D de notre méthodologie.

 

DTAFM / ATDMF on Wikipedia

http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache:tGPZrQMqX7UJ:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DTAFM+wikipedia+DTAFM&cd=1&hl=fr&ct=clnk&gl=fr

 

http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache:Ao2g3wE2jQ0J:fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analyse_technique_dynamique_des_march%C3%A9s_financiers+wikip%C3%A9dia+ATDMF&cd=1&hl=fr&ct=clnk&gl=fr

Gold: wait the end of January

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Yearly trend: in 2012 /2013, qualification in a new bullish parallel pattern

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress with a strong dynamic for MY. The dynamic for each band is very strong. PY will cross MY in more than one period. On a Historical basis, one of the most bullish patterns ever seen (since the end of XIX century). 

Idea: bullish non-crossover for our stochastic.

 

Long term: quarterly bullish parallel pattern

On a quarterly basis, the pattern is a bullish parallel one. The dynamic for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages is strong. The status in progress for our MACD is a bullish non-crossover with an oversold status for our stochastic. A new bull move is in progress.

On a monthly basis, a strong bearish dynamic is always in progress with LM. Our 7 / 23 moving averages will continue to rise with a bullish non-crossover as a status. With our MACD, the status will be overbought in two periods or more.. As long as MM proves to be a support, a decline is only a technical move.

Idea:  the bull trend will expend for some quarters

R = rise > 2 years, +++ (could be above 2 000);    S = MM (938)

 

  

Medium term: weekly bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, PW crossed MW with a nice bearish dynamic for LW, a bullish trend for our monthly basis and no correction after the crossover. Our 7 weeks moving average was up when a bearish crossover price / PW occurred.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules

Bet: a bullish no-crossover for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.

 

R = PW / UW (1204);       S = MW (1068)

 

Short term: Bollinger Bands spread is far away from its minimal level

On a daily basis, UD is a strong resistance.  A bullish no-crossover is in progress with our stochastic. MD should act as a support.

Idea: nothing to do.

Bet: a bullish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

 

R = UD (1143);       S = MD (1112)

 

Conclusion: trading range for two weeks and strong bull market could develop at the end of January.

DTAFM / ATDMF on Wikipedia

http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache:tGPZrQMqX7UJ:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DTAFM+wikipedia+DTAFM&cd=1&hl=fr&ct=clnk&gl=fr

 

http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache:Ao2g3wE2jQ0J:fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analyse_technique_dynamique_des_march%C3%A9s_financiers+wikip%C3%A9dia+ATDMF&cd=1&hl=fr&ct=clnk&gl=fr