Long term basis: next quarterly MACD status will give the trend until 2012

On a yearly basis, the status for our stochastic is overbought. Our M7 is slightly bullish but a bearish B type crossover could develop before 2014.  As long as MY proves to be a support, the recovery could continue. Next supports are 2003 low and LY.

On a quarterly basis, LQ / UQ spread is increasing with lower prices. A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD (end of period). With this hypothesis, a collapse is in hand. Otherwise, above PQ, MQ is our next objective.

On a monthly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. With the quarterly trend, as long as MM proves to be a support, UM is our maximal target. With a close below MM, May 2010 low is our first objective and LM is the next one.

Idea: focus on our quarterly MACD status (end of period)

Bet: a bearish no-crossover with PQ could develop next period  

R = UM (4175);    S = MM (3480), May 2010 low (3287), LM (2783), 2003 low (2401), LY (896)

 

Medium term: Bollinger bands spread is wide

On a weekly basis, our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could develop a bearish no-crossover status. With this hypothesis, LW is our main target. But, as long as our stochastic is not overbought, the recovery in progress could continue towards August high.

Idea: as long as MW proves to be a resistance (end of period), LW could be a target.

Bet: choppy

 

R = MW (3640), August high (3803), UW (4005);               S= LW (3274)

  

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal

On a daily basis, a bearish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages. A bearish no-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Weekly MACD is not overbought. With a close below LD the decline will continue as long as our daily MACD is not oversold.

Idea: bearish pre-parallel pattern in September

Bet: a bear trend is unlikely

R = MD (3675), UD (3792);     S= LD (3558), LW (3274)

 

Conclusion: Bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD is not ruled out.