Long term: a collapse is not ruled out

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing and a bearish parallel pattern is in progress. On a monthly basis, a bearish pre-parallel pattern was in progress. Now the pattern is a bearish parallel one.

Idea: use bearish quarterly parallel rules.

R = PW (92.93); S = LW (84.47) and -.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread was expending when a bearish crossover between MW and PW occurred. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = PW (92.93); S = 87.13, LW (84.47)

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal but is shrinking. Stochastic, MACD and 7 / 23 moving averages are flat. MD (89.69) is our first resistance and UD (91.16) is the next one. PD (87.79) = support.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our  7 / 23 days moving averages if PD fails as a support.

R = MD (89.69);   S = PD (87.79), LW (84.47)

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Conclusion: with a weekly bearish non-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a collapse could develop.

 

Long term:  collapse is not ruled out

On a yearly basis, a close occurred below LY and Bollinger bands are slowly down (Vs flat last week with higher $ / Y). A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages. Our stochastic is overbought. The decline in progress could continue.

On a quarterly basis, UQ / LQ spread is increasing and a bearish pre-parallel pattern is in progress. On a monthly basis, a bearish pre-parallel pattern is also in progress.

Idea: bearish as long as the monthly bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

R = PW (94.63); S = current low and -.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread was expending when a bearish crossover between MW and PW occurred. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress. With a new bearish non-crossover as a status for our stochastic and MACD, a collapse is likely.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = PW (94.63); S = 87.13, LW (85.17)

 

Short term: bearish ATDMF pattern?

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal but is increasing with lower prices. Without any bearish non-crossover for our daily stochastic or MACD, a bearish ATDMF pattern is not expected at the time being (later, a bearish pre-parallel pattern or a bearish Australian pattern could develop). As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline could continue towards LW (85.18).

Idea: below LD (87.72) is not ruled out.

R = MD (90.58);   S = LD (87.72), 87.13, –

.

Conclusion: with a weekly bearish non-crossover as a status for our stochastic, a collapse could develop.

 

Long term:  89.99 is our first objective

On a yearly basis, stochastic will be overbought in Q1 2009. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. MW (103.09) is a strong resistance. 89.99 is our first support and Historical low (79.7) is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. UQ / LQ spread is increasing. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought (bearish non-crossover for our stochastic and our MACD). 89.99 is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought (+ MACD overbought before our stochastic). A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. As long as M23 is bearish, the main trend is bearish. PW (101.76) is our main resistance.

Idea: below 79.7 is not ruled out.

 

 

Long term:  89.99 is our first objective

On a yearly basis, stochastic will be overbought in Q1 2009. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. MW (103.7) is a strong resistance and 89.99 is our first support and Historical low (79.7) is the next one.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. UQ / LQ spread is increasing. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought (bearish non-crossover for our stochastic and our MACD). 89.99 is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, our stochastic and MACD are overbought (+ MACD overbought before our stochastic). A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. As long as M23 is bearish, the main trend is bearish. PW (102.71) is our main resistance.

Idea: bearish trend for 2009.

 

Medium term: bearish parallel pattern

 On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread was expending when a bearish crossover between MW and PW occurred. With our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our MACD is not oversold and a bearish non-crossover in progress with our stochastic. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

 

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages and stochastic is a bearish non-crossover. As long as MD (97.08) acts as a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: Bollinger bands spread increase.

Conclusion: LD (94.41) is our first support.

 

 

 

Editorial,

 

 Achetez un Put sur le USD – JPY après avoir lu notre analyse. La volatilité sur les devises se prépare à augmenter. Le mois d’août va être sportif. Les warrants peuvent être un vecteur de plus-values important si les achats sont initiés avant que le marché détecte un mouvement. C’est le cas actuellement sur le USD – JPY car rien ne laisse présager un mouvement significatif. Sauf qu’avec l’ATDMF, la probabilité est significative de casser un support majeur dans les prochains jours.

 

 

Prochaine mise à jour du site fin Août (profitez en pour relire nos analyses passées et comparez nos prévisions avec celles publiées par ailleurs : presse, courtiers etc).

 

USD – JPY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel Fish.

 

 

Long term:  PY (90.99), first objective

On a yearly basis, stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. UW (108.78, end of a week) is a strong resistance and PY (90.99) is our first support.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. UQ and LQ are declining. With our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LQ (100.57) is our first objective.

On a monthly basis, as long as our MACD is not oversold, the main trend is bearish.

Idea: next month, a bearish non-crossover for our monthly MACD.

 

Medium term: below MW?

 On a weekly basis, a bearish A type crossover could develop for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. As long as MW (103.81) proves to be a support, a recovery towards UW (108.78) could develop. But, our stochastic is overbought and next week, our MACD will be overbought too. Below MW, LW (98.84) is our main target.

Idea: buy a put.

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, the Bollinger bands spread is not too far away from its minimal level. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages (same for our MACD). MD (106.72) is our main resistance. Below MW (103.81), LW (98.84) is our next objective.

Idea: see weekly analysis.

 

Conclusion: buy a put 98 (dec. 2008 or + )

 

 

Une opération qui devrait être rentable  (27/2/2008)

 

Editorial,

 

Editorial,

La faiblesse de l’USD est généralisée. Contre le Yen, une nouvelle accélération du mouvement est en cours depuis hier soir. Habituellement, sur ce couple de devises, les mouvements sont brutaux. A surveiller dans les prochaines heures.

 

USD – JPY

 

(Pour une traduction du texte en français, utilisez Babel Fish de Yahoo)

 

Long term:  LQ (103.28), first objective

On a yearly basis, the status for stochastic and MACD is a bullish non-crossover. The status for our 7 – 23 years moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. MY (117.38) is our main resistance.

On a quarterly basis, UQ and LQ are declining softly. With our 7 – 23 quarters moving averages next status will be a bearish A type crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. PQ (107.22) failed as a support. LQ (103.28) is our main objective.

On a monthly basis, the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish divergence with a bearish non-crossover for our stochastic. With our 7 – 23 moving averages, a bearish A type crossover is in progress. Bollinger bands are diverging. The bear trend could continue for 3 months or more.

Idea: LQ (103.28) is our next objective.

 

Medium term: lower

 On a weekly basis, our indicators are bearish with a bearish non-crossover for our 7 – 23 weeks moving averages. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline will continue.

Idea: a bear trend is in progress.

 

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, the spread UD – LD was not minimal when a close occurred below LD. A bearish Australian pattern is in progress. As long as our MACD is not oversold (bearish non-crossover in progress), the bear trend will continue.

Idea: strong strength on the bear side.

 

Conclusion: LQ (103.28), first objective.