Long term: new pattern, early next year

On a quarterly basis, our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages are up. Our stochastic and MACD could be overbought at the end of Q3 or Q4. With this hypothesis, a bearish divergence will be the status for our stochastic and MACD.  With the 10 Y T-Note, a bearish divergence is in progress, only, with our stochastic. With a close below MQ, this hypothesis will be likely.  The decline will be more powerful with European contract:  € could rise against $ until the end of 2011.

On a monthly basis, a decline could develop in line with the current overbought status for our stochastic and MACD if PM fails as a support. With the Bollinger bands spread, LM will be a very strong support.

Idea: bearish divergence for our stochastic at the end of Q3.

R= UW (123.4);   S= MM (118.55), PM (116.64)

Medium term: UW / LW spread is not far away from its minimal level.

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bearish A type crossover is expected for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. With the monthly trend, no bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.  A bearish pre-parallel pattern is not ruled out. As long as MW proves to be a resistance, the trend for this time is bearish.

Idea: not higher than UW

R = MW (120.99), UW (123.4);   S = MM (118.55),

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, UD and LD are flat with a close below LD.  The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover.  A bearish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. The decline could continue towards MM. Afterwards, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop.

Idea: MD is a strong resistance.

R = MD (122.24);   S = MM (118.55)

 Conclusion: new bear trend below PM (116.64).

Long term: quarterly bearish divergences for our stochastic and MACD?

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 failed with LQ which is not on the down side. But our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. With a close below MQ, a bearish divergence could develop for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, LQ will be our main target. On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern failed (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly pseudo- bullish “T2” occurred and LM was flat in T4). A decline could develop with the current overbought status for our stochastic and MACD.  MQ is our first objective and PM is the next one.

Idea: with a Q2 close below MQ, a (bearish) tsunami is not ruled out.

R= PW (122.44);   S= MQ (117.36), PM (114.62), LQ (110.04)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our MACD. Next week, a bearish crossover PW / MW is expected. If UW trend is up, a collapse is not ruled out.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our weekly MACD.

R = MW (122.34);   S = MQ (117.36), PM (114.62)

Short term: recovery

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is over since MD fails as a resistance.

Idea: technical recovery as long as M23 is bearish.

R = UD (120.54);   S = MD (119.14), LD (117.74)

Conclusion: with a Q2 close below MQ (117.36), a (bearish) tsunami is not ruled out

Long term: quarterly bearish divergences for our stochastic and MACD?

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 failed with LQ which is not on the down side. But our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. With a close below MQ (117.33), a bearish divergence could develop for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, LQ (110.06) will be our main target. On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern failed (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly pseudo- bullish “T2” occurred and LM was flat in T4). A decline could develop with the current overbought status for our stochastic and MACD.  MM (117.43) is our first objective and PM (114.82) is the next one.

Idea: with a Q2 close below MQ (117.33), a (bearish) tsunami is not ruled out.

R= PW (122.44);   S= MM (117.43), PM (114.62), LQ (110.06)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis (continuous contract), a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: if UW trend increase, a collapse could develop.

R = MW (122.33);   S = MM (117.43), PM (114.62)

Short term: bearish parallel pattern

On a daily basis, a bearish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use bearish parallel rules.

R = MD (119.66);   S = LD (117.56), –

Conclusion: with a Q2 close below MQ (117.33), a (bearish) tsunami is not ruled out

Long term: quarterly bearish divergences for our stochastic and MACD?

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 failed with LQ which is not on the down side. But our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. With a close below MQ (117.38), a bearish divergence could develop for our stochastic and MACD. With this hypothesis, LQ (110.02) will be our main target. On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern failed (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly pseudo- bullish “T2” occurred and LM was flat in T4). A decline could develop with the overbought status for our stochastic and MACD.  MM (117.48) is our first objective.

Idea: as long as MM proves to be a support (end of a month) a decline is only a technical move.

R= PW (123.81), UW (125.97);   S= MM (117.48), PM (114.62)

Medium term: lower

On a weekly basis (continuous contract),a weak bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our stochastic and MACD.

Idea: decline as long as our MACD is not oversold.

R = MW (122654);   S = MM (117.48), PM (114.62)

Short term: technical recovery

On a daily basis, a bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. MD (120.24) is our next objective and UD (121.92) is the next one.

Idea: very weak if MD proves to be a resistance.

R = MD (120.24), UD (121.92);   S = LD (118.57), –

Conclusion: medium term is weak as long as MW (122.65) = resistance.

Long term: toppish

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 failed with LQ which is flat. But our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages, stochastic and MACD are up. Within 2 or 3 periods, a bearish divergence will be the status for stochastic and MACD. MQ (117.48) could be a target.

On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern failed (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly pseudo- bullish “T2” occurred and LM was flat in T4). A decline will develop when our stochastic will be overbought (month’s end).

Idea: not bearish as long as our monthly stochastic is not overbought.

Medium term: decline below LW (121.65)

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. A bearish B type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 moving averages. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. Below LW (121.65), MQ (117.48) is our next objective.

Idea: below PW.

R = MW (123.74), UW (125.83);   S = LW (121.65), MQ (117.48)

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is wide. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages are slightly bearish. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. MD (123.16) is our first resistance and LD (121.55) is our first support.

Idea: below LD (121.55) if MD = resistance

R = MD (123.16), UD (124.77);   S = LD (121.55), MQ (117.48)

.

Conclusion: not bullish

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. Prices will move higher.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD.  A bullish T 2 is expected.

On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

 Idea: bearish divergence for our monthly stochastic (after the 1^st of February)…

R = above Historic High;    S = LD (123.98)

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress.

Idea: use parallel rules.

R = +;      S = T1 (121.8)

Short term: flat

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. UD (128.09) is our main resistance and LD (123.89) is our main support. With a close above UD + dynamic for UD and LD + new high during the next period, a bullish T2 will be in hand and a nice bullish ATDMF pattern will develop. Below LD, a decline will be only a technical move. As long as the MACD is not oversold, this move could continue.

Idea: new bullish parallel pattern soon (fly to quality)

R = UD (128.09), T1, +;          S = LD (123.98), PW (121.28).

Conclusion: focus on monthly stochastic.

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, a bullish T2 is in progress.

On a monthly basis, like a bullish bubble pattern is in progress (quarterly time frame was not bullish when a monthly bullish “T2” occurred.)

Idea: use monthly bullish bubble rules.

Medium term: bullish parallel pattern

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress since early January.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

Short term: higher without ATDMF pattern

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is not minimal. A bullish non-crossover will develop between our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue / amplify.

Idea: use bullish parallel rules.

Conclusion: higher until June or +.

Long term: bullish trend for 2009

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Bollinger bands are slightly up. A bullish A type crossover will be the next status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. PQ (120.89) failed as a resistance. 124.60 (Historical high) is the first target. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise will continue or amplify.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is near its minimal level. Bollinger bands are diverging. With our 7 / 23 moving averages, the status is a bullish A type crossover. Our MACD is oversold. A nice dynamic is in progress with LM. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the bull trend will continue or amplify.

Idea: ECB will act again and again in 2009.

Long term: higher

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Bollinger bands are flat. A bearish B type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. PQ (120.89) is our first resistance.

On a monthly basis, the spread UM / LM is near its minimal level. Bollinger bands are diverging. With our 7 / 23 moving averages, the status is a bullish A type crossover. Our MACD is oversold. PQ (120.89) is our first resistance. MM (113.91) is our main support.

Idea: towards PQ (120.89)

Medium term: rise

On a weekly basis, the spread UW / LW is not minimal. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. The same pattern is in progress with our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages.

Idea: bullish as long as our MACD is not overbought.

Short term: higher

On a daily basis, the spread UD / LD is maximal. As long as MD (116.63) proves to be a support, the rise in progress could develop.

Idea: nothing to do.

Conclusion: towards UQ (122.54).