Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, a bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in 2002, the crossover was a bearish B type). A bearish no-crossover could be the status for our MACD. MQ will act as a resistance. LQ will be our first support. If Bollinger bands spread increase, 666 (2009 low) will be our next target. The Collapse will continue as log as our MACD will be not oversold.

On a monthly basis, a bearish A type crossover will be the status for our 7 / 23 months moving averages.. With an overbought status for our stochastic and a close below MM, LM is our next objective.  

Idea: if MQ proves to be a resistance in early July 2010, 1929 collapse could be seen as a weak move.

Bet: a bearish no-crossover for our quarterly MACD is expected

R = UM / MQ (1232);    S = MM (986), LQ (828), 666 (current low), 500, LY (277)

 

Medium term: MW very strong resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger band spread is not minimal and bands are flat. The next status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages will be a bearish A type crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought at the same time. If LW proves to be a support, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop. With an increase of Bollinger bands spread, the decline in progress will continue as long as our MACD is not oversold.

Idea: MM / LW is our first objective.

Bet: next pattern could be a bearish pre-parallel.

 

R = MW (1137);    S= MM (986)

  

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is expending. The status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages is a bearish no-crossover. With the weekly pattern no bear trend could develop.

 Idea: lower as long as our MACD is not oversold

Bet: as long as MD = resistance, a rise is only a technical recovery

R = MD (1160)                     S= MM (986)

 

Conclusion:  with a bearish no-crossover as a status for our quarterly MACD, LY could be a target.