Long term: new bear trend

On a yearly basis, UY is flat. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is not bearish. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period with a bearish divergence. Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.

On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence (wait the end of Q3 for a validation). With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ is flat.  On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages are not bearish. A bearish B type crossover is likely. The pattern with our Bollinger bands was like a bullish parallel one but a close occurred below MM. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.

Idea: a bearish divergence on a yearly time frame could develop (never seen on a quarterly basis).

 R = UD (118.86);    S = MQ (112.25), LM (110.95), MY (109.41), LQ (101.93)

Medium term: bearish without ATDMF pattern

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could be a bearish non-crossover.  The decline in progress could continue or amplify as long as our MW proves to be a resistance (end of a week).

Idea: recovery above MW (end of the week) with the bullish non-crossover for our stochastic and MACD.

R = MW (117.54), UD (118.86);      S = LD (110.97)

Short term: neutral

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. A bullish non-crossover could develop with our 7 / 2 3days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought.  UD is a strong resistance.

Idea: nothing to do.

R = UD (118.86);       S = MD (117.05), LD (115.23)

Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our quarterly stochastic (end of Q3), a Major financial crisis will develop.

Long term: new bear trend

On a yearly basis, UY is flat. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is not bearish. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period with a bearish divergence. Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.

On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence (wait the end of Q3 for a validation). With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ is flat.  On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages are not bearish. A bearish B type crossover is not ruled out before this autumn. The pattern with our Bollinger bands was like a bullish parallel one but a close occurred below MM. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.

Idea: a bearish divergence on a yearly time frame could develop (never seen on a quarterly basis).

 R = MW (119.58);    S = MQ (112.25), LM (110.38), MY (109.39), LQ (101.93)

Medium term: bearish without ATDMF pattern

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish A type crossover.  The decline in progress could continue or amplify as long as our MW proves to be a resistance (end of a week).

Idea: recovery above MW

R = MW (119.58);      S = LW (113.22), LM (110.38), –

 Short term: decline with a close below MD

On a daily basis, UD / LD spread is not minimal. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought.  With a close below MD, LW is our next objective.

Idea: focus on Thursday close.

R = UD (119.06);       S = MD (116.53), LD (113.99)

Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our quarterly stochastic (end of Q3), a Major financial crisis will develop.

Long term: new bear trend

On a yearly basis, UY is flat. The trend for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is not bearish. Our stochastic could be overbought at the end of this period.  Below MY, the main trend will be bearish.

On a quarterly basis, for our stochastic the status is a bearish divergence. With this hypothesis, MQ is our first support. LQ is flat.  On a monthly basis, our 7 / 23 moving averages are not bearish. A bearish B type crossover is not ruled out before this autumn. The pattern with our Bollinger bands was like a bullish parallel one but a close occurred below MM. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic (and a bearish divergence is in progress). LM is our next objective.

Idea: a bearish divergence on a yearly time frame could develop.

 R = MW (120.32);    S = MQ (112.2), LM (110.31), MY (109.39), PQ (109.46), LQ (101.96)

Medium term: bearish without ATDMF pattern

On a weekly basis, a bearish crossover PW / MW occurred last week without a significant rise.  The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish A type crossover.  As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress could continue or amplify. PW is a strong resistance.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our weekly stochastic

R = PW (118.29);      S = LM (110.31), –

Short term: toppish

On a daily basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our MACD. The status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages is a bearish B type crossover. Below MD, LD is our next target.

R = UD (116.82);       S = MD (114.8), LD (112.92), LM (109.81)

Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our yearly stochastic (end of 2009), a Major financial crisis will develop.

Long term: technical correction or new bear trend?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  No increase for the spread UY / LY.

On a quarterly basis; the status for our stochastic and MACD is not yet overbought (end of a bullish non-crossover or a new one is developing soon?). But, a bearish non-crossover is not rules out at the end of Q2 for our stochastic. With this hypothesis, MQ (112.08) is our first support. LQ is flat.  On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. The pattern with our Bollinger bands is like a bullish parallel one. But a bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic (and a weak bearish divergence is in progress). With a close below MM (117.21), PM (114.28) and LM (108.93) are our next objectives.

Idea: with the status for our monthly stochastic, MM (117.21) could fail as a support.

 R = UW (125.7);    S = MM (117.21), PM (114.28), LM / PQ (108.93)

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, a bearish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our stochastic and MACD. Bollinger band spread is not minimal but could expend. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bearish A type crossover.  As long as our MACD is not oversold, the decline in progress could continue. PW (123.34) is a strong resistance. With the monthly trend, no bear pattern could develop on the weekly time frame.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern will be in progress with a close below MM (117.21).

R = MW (122.27);      S = MM (117.21), PM (114.28)

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger band spread is expending.  A bearish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. As long as our MACD is not oversold, the bear trend will improve.

Idea: a collapse could develop.

R = MD (120.5);       S = MM (117.21)

Conclusion: with a bearish divergence as a status for our quarterly stochastic (end of Q2) The Major financial crisis will develop.

Long term: technical correction

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  No increase for the spread UY / LY.

On a quarterly basis; the status for our stochastic and MACD is not yet overbought (end of a bullish non-crossover?).  On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. The pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one. But in May a bearish non-crossover will be the status for our stochastic. With this hypothesis, MM (116.76) will be our main objective.

Idea: bearish non-crossover as a status for our quarterly stochastic: MQ (112.2) could be a target.

R = UW (126.98);    S = MM (116.75), MQ (112.2)

Medium term: weak

On a weekly basis, a weak bullish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our stochastic and MACD. Bollinger band spread is not minimal and UW is flat. PW (124.62) is a strong resistance.

Idea: a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop if LW = support.

R = PW (124.62);      S = LW (120)

Short term: decline

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is shrinking and not far away from its minimal level. A bearish non-crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 days moving averages, stochastic and MACD. MD (122.58) is our main resistance and LW (120) is our first support.

Idea: decline as long as MD (122.58) = resistance

R = MD (122.58);       S = LD (120)

Conclusion: decline until year’s end.

Long term: bullish?

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  With a new high this year, the bull trend will continue.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages (same pattern for our MACD). Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

Idea: towards a new Historical high this year (but wait for the end of Q1 for stochastic / MACD patterns).

R = 128.7 (Historical high), +;    S = MM (116.06)

Medium term: recovery above PW (126.18)

On a weekly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Next status for our stochastic and MACD could be a bearish non-crossover. With this hypothesis, LW (118.14) could be our main target.

Idea: with UW / LW spread, LW is a strong support.

R = PW (126.18);      S = LW (118.14)

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bullish A type crossover is in progress. MD (122.1) is our first support and LD (119.12) is the next one.

R = UD (125.08);       S = MD (122.1), LD (119.12)

Conclusion: lower on a short / medium term basis.  

Long term: bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  With a new high this year, the bull trend will continue.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD. On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages (same pattern for our MACD). Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one.

Idea: towards new Historical high this year (but wait for the end of Q1 for stochastic / MACD patterns).

R = 128.7 (Historical high), +;    S = MM (116.09)

Medium term: recovery above PW (126.62)

On a weekly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the pattern in progress for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages. Our weekly stochastic is not oversold. PW (126.62) is our first resistance. Above this target, UW (128.85) will be a strong resistance (UW / LW spread is wide).

Idea: if PW acts as a resistance, MW (122.66) is our next objective.

R = PW (126.62), UW (128.85);      S = MW (122.66)

Short term: not bullish

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide. With our 7 / 23 days moving averages a bullish A type crossover is in progress. A bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 weekly stochastic and MACD.

Idea: PW could be a resistance (LD is flat).

R = PW (126.62), UW (128.85);       S = MD (121.76), LD (119.68)

Conclusion: not higher than UW (128.85) for short / medium term.  

Long term: not so bullish

On a yearly basis, Bollinger bands are up. The status for our 7 / 23 years moving averages is a bullish non-crossover. Our stochastic and MACD are oversold.  With a new high this year, the bull trend will continue.

On a quarterly basis; a bullish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic and MACD but a bearish divergence could develop with our stochastic.

On a monthly basis, a bullish non-crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 moving averages. Pattern with our Bollinger bands is a bullish parallel one. Below MW (121.41), a bearish divergence will be in progress for our stochastic.

 Idea: see medium term analysis for MW.

R = 128.70 (Historic High);    S = MW (121.41), MM (115.31)

Medium term: below MW?

On a weekly basis, a bullish parallel pattern is in progress. PW failed as a support and our 7 weeks moving average is down. A bearish non-crossover is the status for our stochastic. Below MW (121.41), next target will be LW (112.43).

Idea: below MW, a bearish divergence will be the status for our stochastic on a monthly and quarterly basis.

R = PW (128.12);       S = T1 (121.8), MW (121.41)

Short term: flat / lower

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal. Our 7 / 23 days moving averages are down. LD (121.82) is our main objective. With an overbought status for our stochastic and MACD, a decline is expected (without a bearish ATDMF pattern).

Idea: below 121.29

R = MD (122.94), UD (124.24);          S = 121.29, –

Conclusion: focus on MW.