Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, the status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The collapse in progress could amplify. 500 and LY (180) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase as long as 1280 proves to be a resistance. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages (in Q2 2002 it was a bearish B type crossover).Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). 500 and LY (180) are our next targets. 

Idea: use bearish parallel rules (monthly time frame).

R = 868 (-8 weekly close);    S = 666 (current low), 500, –

Medium term: bearish as long as 868 (-8 weekly close) = resistance

On a weekly basis, our stochastic and MACD are oversold. As long as our 23 weeks moving average is bearish, a rise is only a technical recovery.  Above MW (830, at the close), UW (947) is our next objective.

Idea: if MW (831) acts as a resistance, a new drop is not ruled out in April.

R = MW (831), UW (947);    S= LW (714).

 Short term: UD / LD spread is wide.

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is wide but Bollinger bands spread is expending. As long as our MACD is not overbought, the rise could continue.

Idea: nothing to do with UD / LD spread.

R = MW (831), UW (947);      S= MD (748), LD (657).

Conclusion: as long as 868 prove to be a resistance, the rise is only a technical recovery (bearish on a monthly basis).

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (180) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (180) are our next targets. 

Idea: use monthly bearish parallels rules.

R = MW (813); S = 700, 500, LY (180)

Medium term: decline (collapse?) as long as MW (867) = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. For our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages a bearish non-crossover is in progress.  With an overbought status for our MACD (next Monday?), a collapse could develop.

Idea: with a new low below 740, 700 is next door (and 500 could be a target for the end of Q1).

R = MW (867);    S=  740, 700, 500

Short term: bearish without bearish ATDMF pattern

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands pattern is like a bearish parallel one (volatility was not minimal when a pseudo-T1 occurred. The bear trend for our 7 / 23 days moving averages will continue. The status for our stochastic is a bearish non-crossover. With a new low today, it will be the same status for our MACD.

Idea: with a bearish non-crossover as a status for our MACD, a collapse will develop.

R = MD (813);    S= 740, 700, 500

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Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel pattern in progress for some months. 

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. The yearly bullish trend is over. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (182) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress, at least,  for 5 quarters.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2010 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (182) are our next targets. 

Idea: more and more bearish as long as our monthly stochastic is not oversold (end of the yearly bear trend with this pattern on a quarterly basis).

R = MW (677), UW (967); S = 700, 500, LY (182)

Medium term: Main collapse below PW (760.51)

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not at its minimal level. Our MACD could be overbought next week. Current pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover (see our previous analysis). Our next objective is PW (760.51). Below 741 (21/11/2009 low) / 700 the real collapse will begin.

Idea: next week, with a bear trend for LW a new game will be in progress.

R = MW (877), UW (967);    S= PW (760.51), 700, 500

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal. A slide is expected without a bearish ATDMF pattern. As long as MD (832) proves to be a resistance, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop before a bearish parallel pattern. But volatility is expending strongly (see the slope for UD). A collapse is not ruled out. Above MD (832) our long term bear signal could fade away. Above UD (876) a recovery / rise on a weekly basis could develop.

Idea: warning (for a very strong bear move) until the end of February.

R = MD (832), UD (876);    S= PW (760.51), —

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Conclusion: below 700, LY will not be a dream. 

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (184) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (184) are our next targets. 

Idea: use bearish parallels rules (monthly time frame).

R = UW (1106); S = 700, LW (688), 500, –

Medium term: bearish as long as MW (913) = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is far away from its minimal level. Stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought (bullish non-crossover). Next pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could be a bearish non-crossover. As long as MW (913) proves to be a resistance, our next objectives are PW (752) and LW (719). Above MW, UW (1106) is our main objective.

Idea: with UW / LW spread, choppy without main trend until March.

R = MW (913), UW (1106);    S= PW (752), 700, LW (719)

Short term: UD / LD spread is not minimal

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is not yet minimal but shrinking. A bearish B type crossover or a bearish non-crossover could be the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are not overbought (bullish non-crossover). With a close above MD (847), UD (894) is our favourite target. Otherwise, LD (799) is our first objective. Afterwards, a recovery towards MD (847) is expected.

Idea: wait next week.

R = MD (847), UD (894);    S= LD (799)

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Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel pattern in progress for some months. 

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. The status for our MACD is a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD and stochastic are overbought at the same period: a sharp decline is expected. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (185) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is in progress with our 7 / 23 quarters moving averages. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress for 3 quarters at least.

On a monthly basis; a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?). Below 700, 500 and LY (114) are our next targets. 

Idea: use bearish parallels rules.

R = MW (952); S = 700, LW (688), 500, –

Medium term: decline as long as MW (952) = resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is far away from its minimal level. Stochastic and MACD are not yet overbought. Next pattern for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages could be a bearish non-crossover. Next objective is PW (745) and LW (688).

Idea: with a bearish non-crossover as a status for our 7 / 23 moving averages, a new bear trend will develop.

R = MW (952);    S=  PW (745), 700, LW (688)

Short term: decline without bearish ATDMF pattern

On a daily basis, Bollinger bands spread is minimal and UD / LD spread is extending. A bearish A type crossover is the status for our 7 / 23 days moving averages. Our stochastic and MACD are not oversold. Without a bear trend for the weekly time frame, the decline in progress is not yet a bear trend. With a bearish crossover PD / MD + divergence for UD and LD => a bearish parallel pattern will be the status for our Bollinger bands.

Idea: towards LW with a bearish non-crossover for stochastic / MACD. With parallel, use parallel rules.

R = MD (878);    S= PW (745), LW (688)

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Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel pattern in progress for some months. 

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => 500 as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern was in progress. Next pattern (end of Q4) for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is in progress. Below 700, the collapse in progress will amplify. 500 and LY (114) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving average is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is likely. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  The bear move is in progress as long as our stochastic is not oversold..

On a monthly basis; next month, a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM occurred. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until mid 2009 or +. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. A bearish parallel pattern is in progress for some months (4 to 15?).  

Idea: with the yearly stochastic status, a bear trend is in progress for multi years. 

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => PY (768) as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress but next pattern (end of Q4) for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is in progress. Below PY (768), the collapse in progress could amplify. 700 and LY (114) are our next supports.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving averages is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is likely. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  PY (768) is our first target.

On a monthly basis; next month, a bearish crossover PM / MM + increase of the dynamic for UM is expected. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until the end of 2008. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. PY (768) is our first target.

Idea: below PY (768), 700 and LY (114) could be our next targets. 

Medium term: bearish as long as MW (1153) = resistance

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. With a MACD overbought before our stochastic, a strong move is expected. The spread UW / LW is maximal; with a new low (below 818) a collapse is expected.

Idea: bearish non-crossover for our stochastic.

Short term: without trend

On a daily basis, this time frame is without trend. As long as our 23 days moving average continue to decline, a bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.

Idea: with a bearish ATDMF pattern, PY (768) is next door.

Conclusion: worst than 1929 collapse?

Long term basis: Yearly bearish divergence with our stochastic and MACD => PY (768) as a first target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress but next pattern (end of Q4) for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is in progress. Below PY (768), the collapse in progress could amplify. 700 and LY (114) are our next supports. We wrote LY could be a target!!!.

On a quarterly basis, Bollinger bands spread increase. The dynamic for our 7 quarters moving averages is strong and will increase for 5 periods or more. A bearish A type crossover is likely. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  PY (768) is our first target.

On a monthly basis; next month, a bearish crossover PM / MM  + increase of the dynamic for UM is expected. A bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The bear trend for our moving averages will increase until the end of 2008. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. PY (768) is our first target.

Idea: below PY (768), 700 and LY (114) could be our next target. 

Medium term: bearish as long as MW (1173) = resistance

On a weekly basis, the status for our 7 / 23 weeks moving averages is a bearish non-crossover. With a MACD overbought before our stochastic, a strong move is expected (current pattern could be / is a bearish non-crossover). Bearish as long as MW (1173) prove to be a resistance.

Idea: not bullish as long as M23 trend is down.

Short term: Bollinger bands spread is minimal

On a daily basis, UD acted as a resistance. Bollinger bands spread is minimal. If LD (861) act as a support, a bearish pre-parallel pattern could develop if MD (938) prove to be a resistance. Above MD, UD (1015) is our next objective. If LD fails as a support + bullish dynamic for UD + new low, a bearish ATDMF pattern could develop.

Idea: below LD + up trend for UD.

Conclusion: monthly bearish parallel will be the pattern for 2009

Editorial,

Selon les critères de l’ATDMF, le S & P 500 est et va rester un marché « magnifique ». Pourquoi utiliser ce terme ? Les configurations en cours permettent une lisibilité sur un horizon compris entre 18 et 24 mois. La probabilité est maximale d’assister à une baisse de l’indice de 25% (par rapport aux cours actuels).

N’oublions pas  que cet indice n’est pas secondaire. Ceci signifie que d’autres indices seront tentés / obligés ( ?) de l’imiter.

Rappelons que pour un analyste technique, un bon marché, c’est un marché pour lequel l’incertitude sur la tendance (haussière ou baissière) est minimale.

Dans les trente dernières années, il n’y a pas eu de marché aussi beau.

Indice S&P 500

Lae texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel Fish.

Long term basis: Quarterly bearish divergence with our MACD => LQ / MY as a target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress but next pattern for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is underway.

On a quarterly basis, the dynamic for our 7 quarters moving averages is down. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  LQ (1020) could be a target if MQ (1274, at the close) fails as a support.

On a monthly basis; a bearish A type crossover is in progress for our 7 / 23 months moving averages. The status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish non-crossover. LQ (1020) is our first target.

Idea: over the next two periods; with a bear trend for our 7 months moving average, a collapse is expected until the end of Q3 2009.

Medium term: nice pattern

On a weekly basis; next week, our pattern will be a bearish parallels one if prices cross LW. Otherwise (with prices outside LW), a bearish bubble will be in progress.

Idea: a bearish parallels pattern is our guess.

Short term: bearish parallels pattern

On a daily basis; as long as MD (1303) prove to be a resistance, the bear trend will continue / amplify.

Idea: nice ATDMF pattern.

Conclusion: stay short and many thanks to ATDMF.

Editorial

Pour l’instant, il ne se passe pas grand-chose sur les indices : c’est le calme qui précède la tempête. Dans nos analyses, nous indiquons que certaines figures sont sur le point de se former. Si, au début du prochain trimestre, ces configurations apparaissent, il sera plus facile pour les opérateurs de prendre positions.

Indice S& P 500

Le texte suivant est traduisible à l’aide de Yahoo Babel Fish.

Long term basis: Quarterly bearish divergence with our MACD => LQ / MY as a target

On a yearly basis, a bullish parallels pattern is in progress but next pattern for our MACD will be a bearish divergence. Furthermore, our MACD will be overbought before our stochastic: a sharp decline is underway.

On a quarterly basis, the dynamic for our 7 quarters moving averages is down. Since the end of March 08 a bearish divergence is the status for our MACD. This is the status for our stochastic since December 2007.  LQ (980) could be a target if MQ (1264) fails as a support.

On a monthly basis; the status for our stochastic and MACD is a bearish divergence. Our first objective is LM (1309). The spread UM / LM is not minimal but not so important and will increase.

Idea:  as long as MM (1432) = resistance, a bearish pre-parallels pattern could develop.

Medium term: MW (1359) = main resistance

On a weekly basis, Bollinger bands spread is not minimal. With our 7 / 2 3 weeks moving averages, a bearish A type crossover could develop soon. Our stochastic and MACD are overbought. LW (1294) is our next target.

Idea: lower.

Short term: lower

On a daily basis, the bear trend for our 7 / 23 days moving averages will continue. Today, without a recovery, the status for our MACD will be a bearish non-crossover. As long as MD (1370) proves to be a resistance, the decline could continue or amplify.

Idea: very bearish with a close (Friday 20) below the previous one.

Conclusion: bearish next quarter.